Mark Vitner: Reflections on 25 Years Following The U.S. Economy

Mark Vitner, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo Securities recently expressed his views on following the U.S. Economy for 25 years. The points mentioned by him are very thoughtful and informative. Hence I am listing those 25 points below:

1. Economics is just common sense made difficult
2. It is important to distinguish between what you think the Fed will do and what you think they should do
3. Recessions are caused by the build up of imbalances and some sort of event or policy change that causes investors, consumers, businesses and regulators to become more risk averse
4. Imbalances can build up far longer than seems logical
5. Persistent inflation is always a monetary phenomenon
6. Rising food and energy prices by themselves are deflationary if they are not accommodated by a loose monetary policy
7. Conditions do not have to be perfect in order for the economy to grow
8. There is a tendency for forecasters to focus more attention on what is wrong with the economy than what is right
9. The natural tendency for the U.S. economy is to grow
10. the greatest forecasting mistake economists have made is to underestimate economic growth
11. A trend will continue until is stops
12. You can learn an awful lot by simply observing
13. Never be overly eager to change your forecast
14. Do not be afraid of making mistakes
15. Rapid growth nearly always sows the seeds of its own destruction
16. booms generally lead to unforeseen problems
17. Capital will always flow to the highest available risk-adjusted rate of return
18. The economy does not simply grow and contract, it is constantly evolving
19. Soft landings are extremely hard to pull off
20. Changes in political leadership matter
21. View the economy through the eyes of a business owner, consumer, and policymaker
22. Always look for consistencies and inconsistencies
23. Write your reports and give presentations as if you were explaining economic concepts to your mother
24. Do not outrun your headlights
25. Listen to those who have opposing views

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